Aluminum prices fluctuate upward, and attention still needs to be paid to the performance of social inventory after the holiday {{when "social inventory" refers to inventory held by non-manufacturers, use this translation}} [Institution Comment]

Last week, on the macro front, there were signs of easing in the US-China trade negotiations. The US released employment data including Q1 GDP, April inflation, and non-farm payrolls, revealing a pattern where reality often shows resilience and surprises, yet expectations remain cautiously optimistic. Domestic policies have temporarily maintained their stance, with the April manufacturing PMI pulling back. On the fundamental front, the supply side of aluminum has maintained stable capacity over the past two months, hovering around 45.5 million mt. There are still divergences among different consumption sectors, with cable consumption performing well, PV consumption already at its peak, and other sectors entering the tail end of the peak season.

In summary, during the Labour Day holiday, overseas markets generally saw a rebound in risk appetite, stimulated by positive news on the progress of tariff negotiations. However, uncertainties surrounding trade negotiations remain high, and there is still a possibility of further weakening in the US economy. With stable supply on the fundamental front and the peak consumption season coming to an end, short-term supply and demand dynamics are favorable, but expectations are relatively weak. Attention should be paid to the inventory buildup of aluminum ingots in the social inventory after the holiday. It is expected that the upward pressure on aluminum prices above 20,000 mt will gradually increase.